WASHINGTON — The manufacturing of U.S. feed grain for 2023/2024 was estimated in December at 400 million metric tons by the USDA’s Financial Analysis Service in its most up-to-date “Feed Outlook” report. The whole feed grain provide was forecast at 439.4 million metric tons.
“Robust corn exports and wholesome excellent gross sales, notably for Mexico, contribute to a 25-million-bushel improve within the 2023/24 U.S. corn export forecast,” ERS stated. “The corn and sorghum season-average costs acquired by farmers stay unchanged; nonetheless, barley and oats costs are raised to align with reported costs up to now.”
ERS added that U.S. corn manufacturing reported in December was at 15.2 billion bushels, with famous stronger than anticipated yields reported by USDA’s Nationwide Agricultural Statistics Service. The division added that as farmers wrapped up their year-end harvests, the January estimates will give a clearer take a look at 2024’s manufacturing.
Nevertheless, “the 2023/24 corn provide forecast stays unchanged at 16.6 billion bushels (in December), as gathered corn imports counsel that the USA is poised to hit the present forecast of 25 million bushels.”
The USDA Overseas Agricultural Service reported in late November that U.S. corn export commitments have been simply above 1 billion bushels.
“This quantity is sort of 300 million bushels increased than the identical time final yr and is basically pushed by heavy corn buying from Mexico,” ERS stated. “Mexico’s 2023/24 corn manufacturing forecast is lowered by 1 million metric tons on decrease space. Though increased starting shares assist alleviate the lower to the general Mexican corn provide, it’s not sufficient to fully offset such a loss — notably on the heels of rising Mexican crimson meat and poultry manufacturing.”
This had led Mexico to extend its imports of U.S. corn, the division added.
“In truth, U.S. corn exports to Mexico jumped 20 million bushels in October from the earlier month, accounting for practically 64 % of the October U.S. corn commerce,” the report famous.
In persevering with its take a look at U.S. corn exports, ERS stated that November shipments shall be larger than October quantities.
“U.S. corn export gross sales to Mexico have been 55 % increased in November than October,” the report stated. “Furthermore, FAS reported that excellent gross sales of U.S. corn to Mexico grew by 9.4 % over the past month. Thus, regardless of the rising corn demand by Mexico, November will characterize the primary month of the 2023/24 advertising yr during which greater than 50 % of excellent U.S. corn gross sales will not be claimed by Mexico. In brief, this quantity indicators robust demand within the 2023/24 advertising yr for U.S. corn exports. These components help the 25-million-bushel improve within the 2023/24 corn export forecast to 2.1 billion bushels. This variation is mirrored within the ending shares projection, which is lowered to 2.13 billion bushels.”
· Ukraine
The corn commerce for December was estimated by ERS to be 1.7 million tons increased and to equal about 199.1 million tons.
“Ukraine corn exports are projected 1 million tons increased (in December) to succeed in 21 million, nonetheless the bottom export quantity since 2017/18 (when corn output was 24 million tons),” the report famous. “Corn provides are projected increased (in December) in Ukraine, as improved corn yields develop manufacturing by 1 million tons to 30.5 million.”
ERS added that Ukraine is extremely centered on exports and that its grains and oilseeds are primarily produced to be shipped out.
“Sometimes, home consumption of corn in Ukraine is lower than 20 % of its provides, and given present wartime circumstances, that proportion has fallen to 16.5 %,” the division stated. “Underneath regular circumstances, Ukraine additionally doesn’t inventory a lot grain. Nevertheless, corn shares improve when the nation’s means to export grain is hindered. Given the extent of present Ukrainian corn provides, the nation might have exported much more corn as its costs proceed to be very aggressive, if not for Russian navy actions impeding exports out of the Black Sea.”
ERS additionally famous that for the U.S., estimated corn exports throughout the October to September 2023/24 commerce yr are forecast at 54 million metric tons.
