World egg costs are forecast to remain elevated into 2024 as a result of ongoing extremely pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) outbreaks, elevated feed costs, authorities rules and rising rates of interest, in keeping with monetary providers firm Rabobank’s June 2023 egg inflation report.
Whereas egg costs have began to say no in some regional markets, such because the U.S., costs throughout different nations will doubtless keep inflated into subsequent 12 months. The predominant exception to that is the U.S., the place egg costs have decreased considerably.
“The key challenge there’s that customers have decreased egg consumption at a time when farms are transitioning towards cage-free manufacturing whereas previous capability remains to be operational, resulting in excessive manufacturing. In the meantime, a sudden drop within the variety of avian flu instances in business laying hen farms has resulted in additional provide than anticipated. Costs are anticipated to recuperate later in the 12 months when market stability returns,” said Nan-Dirk Mulder, Rabobank Senior Analyst – Animal Protein.
“The U.S. state of affairs is anticipated to be an exception worldwide. Costs will keep particularly excessive and more and more unstable in markets closely impacted by avian influenza, excessive feed prices, and regulatory modifications. In different markets, costs will drop however to not pre-2021 ranges, as lingering excessive enter prices will maintain costs elevated.”
Exterior the U.S.
Egg producers across the globe have confronted illness, price inflation and regulation, which has resulted in provide chain disruptions and excessive worth peaks.
In accordance to Rabobank, ongoing instances of HPAI the place layer hen quantity are nonetheless low, such as in Japan, are nonetheless inflating egg costs. Previously, the virus disappeared in the summertime months after migration. Nevertheless, HPAI has unfold to different fowl sorts and continued longer than anticipated.
Feed costs are forecast to remain elevated all year long. Rabobank’s Might 2023 feed worth outlook reveals a ten% discount from 2022’s highs, however ongoing elevated costs of fifty% above 2020’s ranges.
Inflation charges are nonetheless affecting egg producers as properly, which may prohibit entry to working capital and affect business growth. Along with inflation, Rabobank believes that business growth will likely be decreased as a result of regulation.
For instance, commerce in Europe is at the moment impacted by male chick culling rules. Moreover, the Netherlands can not increase its manufacturing as a result of nitrogen rules to cut back emissions, which impacts Germany, as it’s a key provider for the nation.
