Market analyst Jim Wyckoff studies on international protein markets
3 February 2024
10 minute learn
US cattle stock report impartial in comparison with expectations however underlying knowledge bullish
USDA estimated there have been 87.157 million head of cattle within the U.S. as of Jan. 1, down 1.684 million head (1.9%) from final 12 months. The meat cow herd dropped 716,000 head (2.0%) to twenty-eight.233 million head. The 2023 calf crop was estimated at 33.593 million head, down 847,000 head (2.5%) from the earlier 12 months. The overall cattle herd was the smallest since 1951 and final 12 months’s calf crop was the smallest in 82 years. Whereas the information was impartial in comparison with pre-report expectations, the underlying knowledge was bullish because the U.S. cattle herd contracted additional — and can proceed to take action.
Weekly US beef, pork export gross sales
Beef: Internet US gross sales of 16,700 MT for 2024 have been primarily for Japan (5,200 MT, together with decreases of 1,100 MT), China (3,300 MT, together with decreases of 300 MT), Mexico (2,500 MT, together with decreases of 100 MT), South Korea (1,400 MT, together with decreases of 400 MT), and Taiwan (1,200 MT, together with decreases of 100 MT). Exports of 15,400 MT have been primarily to South Korea (4,200 MT), Japan (4,200 MT), China (2,300 MT), Mexico (1,700 MT), and Taiwan (700 MT).
Pork: Internet US gross sales of 42,900 MT for 2024 primarily for Mexico (13,400 MT, together with decreases of 1,300 MT and three,000 MT – late), China (12,600 MT, together with decreases of 100 MT), Canada (4,200 MT, together with decreases of 700 MT), Japan (3,100 MT, together with decreases of 1,200 MT and 100 MT – late), and Colombia (2,600 MT), have been offset by reductions for Costa Rica (100 MT). Exports of 30,100 MT have been primarily to Mexico (10,700 MT), Japan (3,600 MT), South Korea (3,500 MT, together with 100 MT – late), China (3,000 MT, together with 200 MT – late), and Colombia (2,800 MT, together with 300 MT – late).
China studies human loss of life from avian influenza
China on Wednesday reported the loss of life of a 63-year-old lady attributable to an an infection of blended H3N2 and H10N5 avian influenza. The lady from Anhui province died on Dec. 16 because of the severity of the illness. “The outbreak is an episodic cross-species transmission from hen to people,” the Nationwide Illness Management and Prevention Administration mentioned. The chance of the virus infecting folks is low, and no human-to-human transmission has occurred, it added.
Overview of USDA ‘product of USA’ labeling plan continues at OMB
The Nationwide Meat Institute (NMI) has already had a session with the Workplace of Administration and Funds (OMB) on USDA’s remaining rule for putting in a voluntary Product of USA label. Their session concerned officers from USDA and the Workplace of the U.S. Commerce Consultant (USTR) and certain targeted on points raised by NMI within the feedback they filed throughout the request for public touch upon the proposed rule launched in 2023. A session at this time can have Canada detailing their place on the ultimate rule by way of Edward Farrell, a lawyer with the OFW regulation agency in Washington, DC, who suggested Canadian cattlemen of their problem on the WTO over the U.S. Nation of Origin Labeling program. One other assembly is presently scheduled for Feb. 6 with the Nationwide Turkey Federation. It’s unclear how a lot USDA’s remaining rule can have differed from the proposed rule launched in 2023 however a number of U.S. meat trade stakeholders raised considerations in regards to the rule and the potential impacts it might have on commerce and different areas.
Bipartisan invoice introduces new labeling guidelines for plant-based and cell-cultured meat merchandise
A bipartisan invoice launched in each the Home and Senate, often known as the Honest and Correct Ingredient Illustration (FAIR) on Labels Act of 2024, goals to determine new labeling necessities for plant-based and cell-cultured meat various merchandise. The invoice, launched by Sen. Roger Marshall (R-Kan.) within the Senate and Rep. Mark Alford (R-Mo.) within the Home, seeks to make sure clear labeling for shoppers, together with phrases like “imitation” and “cell-cultured” on product labels. It addresses considerations about transparency in meals labeling, particularly for merchandise designed to resemble conventional meat and poultry.
The FAIR Labels Act introduces particular definitions for “imitation meat” and “imitation poultry” for plant-based meat alternate options. These definitions would apply to merchandise that resemble meat however don’t include precise meat. The invoice requires using “imitation” or related phrases on labels and mandates a disclaimer stating that these merchandise don’t include meat or poultry.
For cell-cultured meat and poultry merchandise, the invoice establishes definitions and grants the USDA authority over their labeling. It requires using phrases like “cell-cultured” or “lab-grown” on labels to obviously differentiate these merchandise from historically farmed meat.
The invoice has acquired help from varied agricultural and livestock commerce teams, who consider it’ll assist stop shopper confusion and defend the repute of conventional meat merchandise within the market.
Plant-based meats accounted for two.5% of retail packaged meat gross sales in 2022, in keeping with the Good Meals Institute.
USDA concludes nationwide milk advertising and marketing order pricing listening to
USDA has concluded its Nationwide Federal Milk Advertising and marketing Order pricing system listening to, marking the primary replace to the system regulating minimal milk costs for farmers in almost 20 years. This listening to has highlighted the divisions throughout the dairy trade, main some dairy cooperatives to exit a significant dairy commerce group. The following step includes placing the proposed modifications to a vote amongst farmers, probably bringing important alterations to how dairy farmers are compensated. The listening to came about over a number of months in Carmel, Indiana, the place varied stakeholders, together with dairy teams, farmers and dairy processors, testified on 21 totally different proposals. USDA spokesperson Allan Rodriguez talked about the division is presently working by means of the required steps earlier than the choice is voted on by dairy farmers.
China’s hog herd declines notably
China’s pig herd on the finish of 2023 fell 1.8% from the earlier quarter and 4.1% from a 12 months in the past to 434.22 million head, the ag ministry mentioned. The sow herd dropped 2.3% from the earlier quarter and 5.7% from final 12 months to 41.42 million head.
USDA sends animal ID plan to OMB
USDA has despatched a remaining rule to the Workplace of Administration and Funds (OMB) on updating animal illness traceability rules to require the Animal and Plant Well being Inspection Service (APHIS) to solely acknowledge identification units as official identification for cattle and bison if the units have each visible and digital readability (EID). USDA has focused finalizing the rule in April.
China permits certified pork imports from Russia
China’s customs administration started permitting the import of pork from certified areas of Russia final week. Pork imports from areas of Russia with out African swine fever are actually allowed.
Weekly USDA dairy report
CME GROUP CASH MARKETS (1/26) BUTTER: Grade AA closed at $2.7600. The weekly common for Grade AA is $2.6230 (+0.0586). CHEESE: Barrels closed at $1.4700 and 40# blocks at $1.5375. The weekly common for barrels is $1.4590 (-0.0023) and blocks, $1.5120 (+0.0295). NONFAT DRY MILK: Grade A closed at $1.2200. The weekly common for Grade A is $1.1960 (+0.0091). DRY WHEY: Further grade dry whey closed at $0.4425. The weekly common for dry whey is $0.4380 (+0.0249).
BUTTER HIGHLIGHTS: Retail demand is regular, apart from winter storm exercise negatively impacting demand in some northwestern components of the West area. Meals service demand throughout the nation is blended. Harsh snow and ice storms within the West have lightened purchaser exercise within the area. Meals service demand is reported as rising barely within the East area. Bulk butter demand is regular. Cream masses are available. Nevertheless, butter manufacturing is blended all through the nation. Some butter makers within the Pacific Northwest have contended with energy losses and transportation difficulties from harsh winter climate. Some stakeholders notice tight unsalted butter availability. That mentioned, present salted and unsalted stock ranges are ample to fulfill most quick purchaser wants. Bulk butter overages vary from 1 to eight cents above market, throughout all areas.
CHEESE HIGHLIGHTS: Sturdy milk volumes proceed to be obtainable for Class III manufacturing within the East the place plant managers notice regular manufacturing schedules. Cheddar and mozzarella inventories are famous to be comfy. Foodservice demand is greater than in latest weeks. Retail cheese demand is regular to stronger. Within the Central area, some cheese crops have come again on-line after scheduled downtime. Cheese processors relay spot milk availability has tightened, and costs have been reported above Class III for the primary time since earlier than the winter holidays. Cheese demand is stronger, however on par with this time in earlier years. Foodservice and retail contacts notice American-style cheese orders are stronger than regular for late January. Winter climate interrupted some retail and foodservice cheese calls for in some western states. Spot milk availability is blended as some contacts notice transportation delays. Different contacts notice spot a great deal of milk being provided beneath Class III costs. Cheese inventories are available for spot purchasers. Export demand is famous to be regular.
FLUID MILK: Milk manufacturing is trending in seasonal patterns, regular to barely greater week over week, all through the nation. Part ranges, in keeping with East and West contacts, have reached their peak. Milk masses can be found for all Lessons. Cheesemakers within the West and Central areas proceed to seek out some spot masses at beneath -Class costs, though Midwestern cheesemakers additionally reported spot costs above Class for the primary time this 12 months. Reported Midwestern Class III spot masses ranged from $1-under to $1-over Class. Western milk contacts reported Class III spot milk as little as $7-under Class III. Cream is broadly obtainable. Butter plant managers throughout the nation are fielding plentiful presents on cream. Condensed skim availability is usually regular, as masses usually are not tough to seek out for processors. F.O.B. cream multiples are 1.00-1.20 within the East, .90-1.25 within the Midwest, and 1.00-1.20 within the West.
DRY PRODUCTS: Quite a lot of Market Information contacts attended trade occasions this week, and dairy powder market tones, on the entire, are considered as regular to barely bullish shifting additional into the winter months. Low/medium and excessive warmth nonfat dry milk (NDM) costs have been blended within the Central/East areas, whereas regular to barely greater within the West. Condensed skim provides can be found, and low/ medium warmth NDM manufacturing stays the main focus of processors within the nation. Dry buttermilk costs have been regular in all areas. Demand stays considerably quiet, though inventories usually are not regarding. Dry complete milk costs held regular, as effectively. Dry whey costs moved greater in most aspects this week. Demand for prime protein concentrations, comparable to whey protein focus 80%, has pushed extra solids into these processing channels, holding candy whey powder volumes considerably agency. Whey protein focus 34% costs have been regular to greater this week. Lactose costs have been blended. Home demand for each whey protein focus 34% and lactose is considerably hearty within the U.S. Casein costs have been unchanged on regular demand.
ORGANIC DAIRY MARKET NEWS: Within the week 4 retail dairy survey, the variety of natural advertisements elevated by 37 %, after declining in week 3. Essentially the most marketed natural dairy class is milk on this week’s survey, regardless of a decline in advert numbers. Natural cheese and yogurt have been the second and third most marketed commodities discovered on this week’s survey. Natural cottage cheese and bitter cream appeared on this week’s survey, after not showing in week 3. In the meantime, whole advertisements declined for 2 dairy commodities this week. Considered one of these, natural ice cream, appeared in final week’s survey, however was not current in any surveyed advertisements this week. Natural milk advert numbers declined by 1 % this week. Adverts for natural gallons of milk elevated by 6 %, whereas advertisements for natural half gallons declined by 6 %. Regardless of a decline within the whole variety of advertisements, natural half gallon milk remained essentially the most marketed natural merchandise within the survey this week. The weighted common marketed value for natural half gallon milk this week was $4.09, down 26 cents from final week. Standard half gallon milk had a weighted common marketed value of $2.21. The natural premium for milk in half gallon containers was $1.88 this week.
NATIONAL RETAIL REPORT: Complete typical dairy commercials decreased by 15 %, whereas whole natural dairy advertisements elevated by 37 %. Ice cream in 48-64 ounce containers was essentially the most marketed dairy product, with a weighted common marketed value of $4.45, up from $4.27 the week prior. Standard butter in one-pound packages had a weighted common marketed value of $4.80, down from $4.88 the week prior.
