Livestock analyst Jim Wyckoff shares world protein information
19 January 2024
11 minute learn
China’s December pork imports fall sharply from year-ago
China imported 90,000 MT of pork throughout December, unchanged from November however 54.3% lower than final yr. For 2023, China imported 1.55 MMT of pork, down 11.7% from the earlier yr.
US Cattle slaughter slowly rebounding amid wintry climate
Wednesday’s estimated cattle slaughter improved to 118,000 head, although that was nonetheless 3,712 head under final yr. The week-to-date tally stood at 341,000 head, up from final week however nonetheless effectively behind final yr. Most beef crops are anticipated to run sizable Saturday kills to make up for vacation and weather-related downtime. As slaughter regulates, packer demand for money cattle is predicted to enhance and help money cattle costs.
China’s pork manufacturing reaches report in 2023
China produced a report 57.94 MMT of pork in 2023, official information confirmed, after farmers ramped up slaughter over the last quarter to chop losses amid an oversupply of pigs. Annual pork output expanded 4.6% from the earlier yr, as slaughter rose 3.8% to 726.62 million head. Pork manufacturing within the fourth quarter totaled 14.93 MMT, up 7% from the identical interval in 2022. China’s beef output rose 4.8% to 7.53 MMT, poultry meat manufacturing rose 4.9% to 25.63 MMT and mutton elevated 1.3% to five.31 MMT in 2023.
Philippines bans poultry imports from California, Ohio on account of HPAI
The Philippines’ ag ministry has banned poultry imports from California and Ohio due to a number of outbreaks there of extremely pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI). The ban covers imports of domesticated and wild birds, together with poultry meat and eggs, the ministry stated. All shipments coming from California and Ohio which are already in transit, loaded or accepted at Philippine ports earlier than Jan. 15 shall be allowed entry in the event that they had been slaughtered two weeks earlier than the outbreak started. In 2023, the Philippines imported 166,356 MMT of poultry merchandise price $175.8 million from the US, authorities information confirmed.
As People eat extra cheese and butter, US farmers are scrambling to get their cows to supply fattier milk
The efforts embody utilizing completely different cow breeds and feed mixes and ensuring animals are snug and don’t get too scorching. The result’s that the common quantity of butterfat in milk produced by US dairy herds has climbed previous 4% and above the earlier report set throughout World Warfare II. Wall Road Journal.
In November, US pork exports reached new information in key markets
The surge in US pork exports is pushed by excellent performances in Mexico, Central America, and Colombia. These figures are based mostly on information from USDA and compiled by the US Meat Export Federation (USMEF).
Pork exports to Mexico, a number one market, reached a worth report in November, marking a 5% improve from the earlier yr. Export quantity additionally surged by 14%, totaling 100,313 metric tons, making it the second-largest on report, with solely October 2023 surpassing it.
Central America noticed massive progress in pork exports in November, with important will increase in Honduras, Guatemala, and El Salvador. Shipments to the area surged by 35% in comparison with the earlier yr, reaching 16,565 metric tons, setting month-to-month information.
South Korea additionally skilled substantial progress in pork exports in November, up by 19% in comparison with the earlier yr, with shipments totaling 17,406 metric tons.
Oceania witnessed a notable rebound in pork exports all through 2023, and this pattern continued in November, with shipments almost tripling in comparison with the earlier yr, reaching 6,414 metric tons, which is a formidable 186% improve.
When it comes to manufacturing, exports accounted for 30.1% of complete pork manufacturing in November, with muscle cuts making up 26.2%. Each figures elevated by roughly 1 share level in comparison with the earlier yr.
USDA report: livestock and poultry, world markets and commerce
Competitors Tightens for Main Pork Exporter
The revised 2024 forecast of pork shipments by US and EU, the world’s high two exporters, are almost on par for the primary time since 2015. US and EU exports for 2024 are each revised decrease in comparison with the October forecast. Nevertheless, the hole is narrowed for these rivals as US shipments are revised just one % decrease whereas EU shipments are revised 3 % decrease. The downward revisions for US and EU exports are pushed by anticipated weaker shipments to China, the world’s largest importer.
Continued weak demand by China reduces export alternatives, significantly for the EU. Though US export volumes to China stay a big a part of complete exports, US share of exports to China is lower than for the EU. In 2022, US shipments to China accounted for 10 % of complete exports, whereas EU shipments to China accounted for 27 % of complete exports. As well as, EU manufacturing has declined lately and is revised 2 % decrease in 2024, tightening exportable provides.
Forecast progress in US manufacturing and decrease costs are anticipated to underpin US exports competitiveness in a number of markets.
Beef
World beef manufacturing for 2024 is revised 1 % upward from the October forecast to 59.5 million tons as upward revisions for the USA and Australia greater than offset declines for Argentina and the EU. Nonetheless, US manufacturing remains to be anticipated to say no yr on yr. Australia continues herd liquidation and processors have introduced further shifts supporting larger slaughter ranges which can offset barely decrease weights. Argentina manufacturing is revised decrease on tighter cattle provides following a smaller calf crop and drought-induced liquidation in 2023. EU manufacturing is revised down on decrease slaughter amid multi-year herd contraction and sluggish client demand. The manufacturing forecast for Brazil is unchanged.
World beef exports for 2024 are revised 1 % larger from the October forecast to 12.1 million tons. Shipments by Brazil and Australia are revised upward on ample manufacturing and agency world demand. Australia and Brazil, the world’s main exporters, will profit from sturdy US import demand spurred by declining home manufacturing. Nevertheless, Brazil shipments shall be constrained by US beef import quotas whereas Australia shipments are limitless and duty-free as a result of United States- Australia Free Commerce Settlement. The forecast for China demand is barely improved regardless of slower anticipated financial progress.
Pork
World pork manufacturing for 2024 is revised down 1 % from the October forecast to 114.2 million tons on decrease output in China, the EU, and Brazil. China manufacturing is revised decrease as continued weak demand discourages increasing home manufacturing. EU manufacturing is revised decrease on continued regulatory strain and altering client preferences. Brazil manufacturing is revised decrease as imports from high market China proceed to weaken. US manufacturing is just about unchanged with declines within the farrowings offset by elevated pigs per litter. • World pork exports for 2024 are lowered 2 % from the October forecast to 10.2 million tons because the EU, United States, and Brazil more and more compete for decrease China imports. Though US exports stay robust to many core markets, together with Mexico and Canada, combination exports are revised decrease towards weak import demand from Japan and China. United Kingdom exports are additionally revised decrease on declining demand from the European Union.
Rooster Meat
World rooster meat manufacturing for 2024 is just about unchanged from the October forecast at 103.3 million tons. A downward revision in US manufacturing is usually offset by upward revisions for the EU and UK. The manufacturing forecasts for Brazil and China stay unchanged. • World rooster meat exports for 2024 are revised 1 % decrease from the October forecast to 13.9 million tons as reductions in Brazil and US shipments should not offset by minor positive aspects from different main exporters. Weaker than anticipated demand from Saudi Arabia, South Korea, and Japan will primarily impression Brazil, the world’s main exporter. Regardless of the downward revision in Brazil exports, volumes are nonetheless anticipated to achieve a report degree and proceed to account for a rising portion of world commerce. US exports are revised decrease on softer Cuba and Angola demand stemming from macroeconomic challenges.
China’s 2023 meat imports slip under year-ago
China imported 566,000 MT of meat throughout December, up 1.6% from November however almost 19% under year-ago. For 2023, China imports 7.38 MMT of meat, down 0.3% from the earlier yr.
Eggs getting costlier at US grocery shops as HPAI strikes business once more
The value of eggs shot up 8.9% from November, marking the very best month-to-month improve since January of final yr as extremely pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) outbreaks impacted the business. For now, economists consider this newest HPAI outbreak received’t be as extreme because the one in 2022 that devastated flocks and despatched egg costs sky-high – at one level rising 70% yearly. Of notice: For the 12 months that led to December, egg costs had been down 23.8%.
Weekly USDA dairy report
CME GROUP CASH MARKETS (1/12) BUTTER: Grade AA closed at $2.5675. The weekly common for Grade AA is $2.5595 (-0.0893). CHEESE: Barrels closed at $1.4450 and 40# blocks at $1.5625. The weekly common for barrels is $1.4600 (+0.0400) and blocks, $1.5280 (+0.0717). NONFAT DRY MILK: Grade A closed at $1.1850. The weekly common for Grade A is $1.1910 (+0.0147). DRY WHEY: Further grade dry whey closed at $0.4300. The weekly common for dry whey is $0.4270 (+0.0257).
BUTTER HIGHLIGHTS: Retail and bulk butter calls for are principally regular. Nevertheless, some lighter home demand is reported within the western area as a couple of manufactures point out demand is under expectations. Persistently weak meals service demand is famous within the east area. Within the central area, meals service demand is predicted to take a brief hit from current winter storms. Cream is available. Robust to regular manufacturing schedules are reported. Some butter makers are turning down cream affords on account of presently being at capability. Winter climate brought about some hauling disruptions at some crops within the central area. Bulk butter overages vary from 1 to eight cents above market, throughout all areas.
CHEESE HIGHLIGHTS: Attributable to storm exercise in lots of japanese states, many milk hundreds meant for Class III processors had been diverted into Class I channels. Processors notice manufacturing schedules are regular to lighter commensurate with milk availability. Contacts within the Northeast relay elevated export demand. Spot milk availability stays robust within the Central area, and costs are being reported as little as $7 under Class III. Some crops notice downtime for both upkeep or inspection. Cheesemakers notice regular demand and cozy stock ranges. Winter climate is predicted so as to add obstacles for each milk and cheese transport. Within the West, retail cheese demand is famous to be lighter. Foodservice demand is following an identical downward pattern. Contacts notice robust Class III demand has made manufacturing schedules regular to stronger. Contacts within the West additionally report elevated worldwide buying curiosity.
FLUID MILK: Farm degree milk manufacturing is regular to stronger throughout the US. Within the Northeast, farm degree milk manufacturing continues to develop week over week. Attributable to winter climate, contacts famous some spot milk hundreds meant for Class III processing had been redirected into Class I channels firstly of the week. Within the Midwest, winter climate can be proving to be an impediment to some dairy operations. Milk volumes can be found for spot purchases, which plant managers attribute to downtime moderately than farm degree milk output progress. Spot milk costs had been reported from $7 to $0.50 beneath Class III. Contacts famous Class I orders throughout this week had been stronger than in earlier years. Butter processors relay having to show away cream affords as they’re approaching capability. In California and Arizona, milk output is famous to be regular to stronger. In California, milk manufacturing will increase are at or above anticipated ranges, and spot milk hundreds had been reported as little as $6 beneath Class IV. Milk manufacturing is regular in New Mexico, the place winter climate affected transportation this week. In Idaho, Colorado, and Utah, contacts notice milk manufacturing is regular. In Washington and Oregon, milk outputs are regular to stronger, and milk handlers notice week over week variations have elevated from the top of 2023 to now.
DRY PRODUCTS: Within the Central area, low/medium warmth nonfat dry milk (NDM) market exercise was regular to stronger, with costs persevering with to land across the $1.20/lb mark. Contacts notice demand from Mexico has picked up once more. Contacts anticipate winter climate to be an impediment for shifting condensed skim hundreds to drying amenities. Within the West, NDM hundreds are typically obtainable for spot purchasers. Reasonable export demand is famous. NDM manufacturing schedules have been regular, although some processors notice routine upkeep. Liquid buttermilk availability has grown within the East, Central, and Western areas as churning exercise has picked up. Within the Central and East areas, dry buttermilk inventories stay tight as NDM has taken major manufacturing focus. Dry entire milk processing stays restricted week over week, and inventories are famous to be tight. Dry whey shopping for curiosity is mild within the East, however regular within the Central and Western areas. Central processors notice the firmness of the whey protein focus market may point out manufacturing shifts away from dry whey. Equally, whey protein focus 34% inventories have tightened as processors give attention to drying whey protein focus 80% and whey protein isolate. Home demand for lactose elevated this week. Contacts notice lactose assembly stringent necessities is tough to acquire, with some processors noting they’ve restricted to no spot availability by way of Q1. Contacts share acid casein demand has picked up. Rennet casein manufacturing has resumed following the winter holidays.
ORGANIC DAIRY MARKET NEWS: The Natural Dairy Knowledge Assortment Act, HR 6937, was launched within the US Home of Representatives not too long ago. The reported purpose of this invoice is to extend understanding of the prices related to producing natural milk whereas enhancing USDA information assortment. This invoice would direct the USDA to gather and publish information concerning the price of natural feedstuffs produced domestically or imported. It might direct NASS to collect information and report month-to-month quantities natural dairy farmers are receiving for natural milk. This invoice would additionally direct a part of the USDA to publish information illustrating the price of manufacturing by state, the amount of natural milk produced by area, and pay costs. Nationwide Natural Grain Feedstuff commerce exercise was mild on the spot market with average demand. Bids for natural feed are principally $7.00 – $7.75 delivered elevator. Natural feed soybean bids stay principally unchanged. The majority of commerce exercise this era was ahead contracts. In comparison with the identical interval final yr, natural feed corn bought $2.97 decrease delivered elevator and natural feed soybeans bought $8.57 decrease.
NATIONAL RETAIL REPORT: Commercial totals had been divided this week, as natural dairy advert numbers almost doubled following the primary full week of the yr, whereas typical advert totals decreased 14 %, in toto. Standard ice cream in 48-to-64-ounce containers was probably the most marketed dairy merchandise this week, whereas typical shredded cheese in six-to-eight-ounce packages was the second-most marketed dairy merchandise. Half-gallon milk stays probably the most marketed natural dairy merchandise this week.
