Livestock analyst Jim Wyckoff studies on poultry, pork, beef and dairy information from across the globe
29 June 2024
13 minute learn
USDA to announce H5N1 assist for dairy farmers
USDA will quickly announce monetary assist for dairy farmers affected by the H5N1 virus by way of the Emergency Help for Livestock, Honeybees and Farm-Raised Fish (ELAP) program. The help will cowl 28 days of milk loss per cow over a 134-day interval, primarily based on the month-to-month all-milk value and anticipated milk manufacturing per cow. Of the 28 days, 21 will likely be coated at full loss and 7 at 50% loss. Eligibility requires a optimistic take a look at from a federally authorised lab and milk manufacturing in the course of the interval. Particulars will likely be shared in public briefings with impacted states on Thursday and Friday.
Barely greater US hog herd anticipated
Analysts count on USDA’s Hogs & Pigs Report this afternoon to point out the U.S. hog herd elevated 0.8% from year-ago as of June 1 to 74.139 million head. Market hog inventories are anticipated to be up 1.2%, whereas the breeding herd is anticipated to be down 2.7%. Analysts count on USDA to report a 0.9% greater spring pig crop as elevated litter measurement doubtless offset barely fewer farrowings. Trying ahead, analysts count on farmers to farrow 1.4% and 1.0% fewer sows throughout summer time and fall, respectively. As all the time, USDA’s revisions to previous knowledge will likely be key.
Weekly USDA US beef, pork export gross sales
Beef: Web gross sales of 16,700 MT for 2024 had been up 13 % from the earlier week and 17 % from the prior 4-week common. Will increase had been primarily for Japan (4,000 MT, together with decreases of 300 MT), China (4,000 MT, together with decreases of 100 MT), South Korea (3,500 MT, together with decreases of 300 MT), Canada (1,300 MT, together with decreases of 100 MT), and Mexico (1,100 MT). Exports of 16,400 MT had been down 2 % from the earlier week, however up 1 % from the prior 4-week common. The locations had been primarily to Japan (4,700 MT), South Korea (3,900 MT), China (1,900 MT), Canada (1,600 MT), and Taiwan (1,500 MT).
Pork: Web gross sales of 39,200 MT for 2024 had been up 83 % from the earlier week and 25 % from the prior 4-week common. Will increase primarily for Mexico (20,200 MT, together with decreases of 200 MT), Japan (5,900 MT, together with decreases of 200 MT), Canada (4,200 MT, together with decreases of 600 MT), South Korea (3,900 MT, together with decreases of 100 MT), and Australia (3,100 MT, together with decreases of 100 MT), had been offset by reductions for the Dominican Republic (1,700 MT). Exports of 28,300 MT had been down 2 % from the earlier week and 14 % from the prior 4-week common. The locations had been primarily to Mexico (11,300 MT), Japan (4,100 MT), South Korea (2,700 MT), China (2,600 MT), and Canada (2,000 MT).
2024 US meat, poultry, fish costs anticipated to rise by 1.8%; pork costs seen up 1.1%
US pork costs have risen 2.6% since Could 2023. The opposite meals class, accounting for 12.2% of meals costs, is now forecast to extend by 0.8%, down from 1.3% in Could.
US money cattle fundamentals stay crimson scorching
The common US money cattle value was a document $194.84 final week, rising $2.29 from the earlier week’s excessive. Over the previous two weeks, the money value has surged $5.92. Wholesale beef costs firmed 25 cents for Option to $322.64 and $1.96 for Choose to $305.07 on Monday. Given hefty packer purchases of cattle not too long ago and subsequent week’s shortened slaughter schedule, money sources count on costs to be regular at greatest this week.
H5N1 avian flu confirmed in 121 dairy herds, USDA expects extra circumstances amid warmth challenges
The H5N1 avian flu virus has been confirmed in 121 dairy herds, with extra anticipated as testing continues, in accordance with a USDA official. The outbreak, now in its fourth month, poses challenges as summer time warmth discourages farmworkers from carrying full protecting gear.
Extra circumstances anticipated. Julie Gauthier of the USDA’s Animal and Plant Well being Inspection Service talked about in a webinar hosted by the Council for Agricultural Science and Expertise that further circumstances are anticipated with elevated testing. The USDA is selling a voluntary program for weekly milk pattern assessments from bulk coolers on dairy farms, permitting farmers to move lactating cows throughout state strains with out prior testing if the weekly outcomes are unfavorable. 4 herds have joined this system since June 3.
USDA additionally plans to roll out the Emergency Livestock Help Program
The Emergency Livestock Help Program (ELAP) compensates producers for milk loss because of an infection. This program goals to encourage extra herds to bear testing.
Criticism has been directed at USDA for inadequate herd testing and insufficient monitoring of dairy farmworkers. Since March 25, three dairy staff have contracted gentle circumstances of chicken flu from cattle within the Texas panhandle.
Jamie Jonker of the Nationwide Milk Producers Federation famous that full private protecting gear (PPE) will not be possible within the present warmth, elevating potential employee issues of safety. The main focus will as a substitute be on defending the eyes, nostril, and mouth, with goggles already beneficial in milking parlors. Gloves, masks, face shields, and disposable coveralls are different prompt protecting measures. Testing has discovered excessive viral counts in uncooked milk from contaminated cows, with conjunctivitis being a typical symptom amongst contaminated staff.
USDA Secretary Tom Vilsack is predicted to announce a brand new livestock competitors regulation
Vilsack will communicate at an occasion that can give attention to market competitors and bettering circumstances for U.S. producers, that includes Vilsack and U.S. Assistant Legal professional Normal of Antitrust Jonathan Kanter. The Workplace of Administration and Price range not too long ago accomplished its assessment of a USDA proposed rule defining unfair practices below the Packers and Stockyards Act. That is a part of the Biden administration’s broader regulatory efforts in agriculture, significantly focusing on the livestock and poultry markets.
Denmark is about to implement a carbon tax on livestock producers
This transfer is meant to fulfill its 2030 goal of decreasing greenhouse gasoline emissions by 70% from 1990 ranges. The tax will likely be 300 Danish crowns ($43.16) per metric ton of carbon dioxide in 2030, rising to 750 crowns by 2035. Farmers can obtain a 60% earnings tax deduction, successfully decreasing the tax to 120 crowns per metric ton initially, rising to 300 crowns by 2035. Subsidies may also be accessible to assist farmers regulate their operations. This plan, proposed in February and agreed upon by farmers, business, labor unions, and environmentalists, awaits parliamentary approval however is predicted to cross. Farming is Denmark’s largest supply of carbon dioxide emissions. Different nations have confronted resistance to related taxes from farmers.
Solely 18 U.S. farms are at the moment accepting federal funds to fight the H5N1 avian flu outbreak amongst dairy herds
The outbreak started three months in the past, in accordance with USDA. Eligible farms can obtain as much as $28,000 over three months if they’ve an outbreak, and $3,500 is out there to different dairy producers to enhance biosecurity and take a look at their cows.
The Facilities for Illness Management (CDC) reported (hyperlink) that over 690 individuals have been monitored for chicken flu because of publicity to contaminated animals, a rise of 140 in every week. A minimum of 51 individuals with flu-like signs have been examined for chicken flu, with three farmworkers contracting gentle circumstances since March 25, when it was confirmed that the virus had unfold from birds to dairy cattle. The CDC emphasised that the danger to most people stays low.
Michigan has the very best enrollment for USDA monetary help, with 11 farms taking part. Different states with enrolled farms embody New York (one farm), Iowa (three farms), Colorado (two farms), and Wyoming (one farm). A USDA database (hyperlink) reveals that H5N1 has been confirmed in 112 herds throughout 12 states. The latest change in format of the database reported 116 affected herds beforehand. USDA reported that HPAI has been confirmed in six further Colorado dairy herds, two in Iowa and one in Idaho, in accordance with Animal and Plant Well being Inspection Service (APHIS) updates on June 20 and 21. USDA mentioned that 58 circumstances have been confirmed prior to now 30 days, affecting eight states.
In early Could, USDA introduced as much as $28,000 accessible for farms with contaminated herds to cowl prices akin to protecting gear, veterinary testing, treating contaminated herds, and strengthening biosecurity practices. Farms with out optimistic assessments for chicken flu may obtain as much as $1,500 for biosecurity measures and $2,000 for cow testing.
USDA plans to situation a disaster-aid regulation to compensate farmers for 90% of the worth of milk manufacturing misplaced because of the virus and compensate farmers at truthful market worth for culled cows. Dairy cows contaminated with chicken flu sometimes develop a fever, lose urge for food, and produce much less milk however usually get better inside a few weeks, with a mortality and culling charge of two% or much less.
Iowa reported its eleventh case of chicken flu amongst dairy herds on Sunday in Sioux County (hyperlink), with two different circumstances in the identical county reported on Friday. 4 herds in Kansas, Nebraska, New Mexico, and Texas have enrolled in a voluntary USDA program for weekly testing of milk samples, exempting them from testing lactating cows earlier than interstate delivery.
Since February 2022, USDA has allotted $2.1 billion to deal with chicken flu outbreaks, which have resulted within the deaths of over 97 million birds, primarily egg-laying hens and turkeys.
USDA Cattle on Feed Report barely unfavorable in comparison with expectations
USDA estimated there have been 11.583 million head of cattle in massive US feedlots (1,000-plus) as of June 1, down 7,000 head (0.1%) from year-ago however 152,000 head greater than the common pre-report estimate implied. Could placements topped year-ago by 4.3%, whereas merchants anticipated a 1.5% decline. Marketings elevated 0.2% from final 12 months, barely lower than anticipated. The information is mildly unfavorable in comparison with the pre-report estimates, however not sufficient to have a serious market affect.
China seeks to stabilize beef cattle manufacturing amid declining costs
China’s ag ministry revealed new laws to stabilize the manufacturing of beef cattle because the business faces declining costs and heavy losses. The ministry mentioned it should instruct farms to regulate breeding fairly, get rid of outdated and low-yielding cattle as applicable, optimize herd construction and enhance manufacturing effectivity. Predominant beef cattle producing areas ought to actively search assist from monetary establishments, it mentioned. The ministry additionally known as for measures to extend the provision of forage and cut back prices. Native areas ought to elevate grass planting in cultivated land and as properly utilizing seashores, deserted land and saline-alkali land. To strengthen illness prevention, the ministry mentioned it will assist large-scale farms to extend biosafety measures and construct disease-free communities.
Weekly USDA dairy report
CME GROUP CASH MARKETS (6/21) BUTTER: Grade AA closed at $3.0900. The weekly common for Grade AA is $3.0963 (+0.0023). CHEESE: Barrels closed at $1.9200 and 40# blocks at $1.8450. The weekly common for barrels is $1.9475 (-0.0585) and blocks $1.8681 (-0.0764). NONFAT DRY MILK: Grade A closed at $1.2050. The weekly common for Grade A is $1.1988 (+0.0048). DRY WHEY: Further grade dry whey closed at $0.4700. The weekly common for dry whey is $0.4775 (+0.0025). BUTTER HIGHLIGHTS: Within the West, home butter calls for for each the retail and meals service sectors are regular. For the Central and East areas, no adjustments in home butter calls for from the prior week are conveyed for both the retail or meals service sectors. Though cream availability continues to tighten at varied paces throughout the nation, butter producers point out cream volumes stay ample for processing wants. Butter manufacturing schedules are largely regular. That mentioned, just a few producers point out churns will go down for prolonged upkeep initiatives previous to months finish. Some stakeholders say unsalted bulk butter is tight. Bulk butter overages vary from 1 to 10 cents above market, throughout all areas.
CHEESE HIGHLIGHTS: Cheese manufacturing schedules are variable all through the U.S. Within the Northeast, regular farm stage milk manufacturing and decrease Class I demand has allowed some cheese producers to run at full capability. Within the Central area, contacts share cheese manufacturing is consistent with latest weeks. Spot milk costs ranged from $2- to $1-under Class III. For week 25 of 2023, although, the spot milk value vary was $11- to $3.50-under Class III. Some cheese processors have shared that they’re ready to buy spot milk hundreds till the Independence Day vacation. Within the West, cheese manufacturing is regular to lighter. Milk volumes have develop into tighter all through the area, and a few vegetation reported surprising downtime. Export cheese demand is regular.
FLUID MILK: Fluid milk and cream manufacturing has declined in nearly each area this week. Temperatures nearing and reaching 100 levels, in states throughout the South and West, are pushing cattle from their consolation zones and lowering manufacturing. Within the Northeast, cooler temperatures and higher cow consolation have been cited as the first motive for contacts suggesting that present milk manufacturing ranges have been increased than anticipated for this time of 12 months. Spot milk hundreds are discovering their method into markets the place processors are shortly making use of them. The supply of these hundreds is getting tighter. Within the Midwest, cheesemakers are discovering spot milk hundreds at $2- and $1-under Class III once more this week. Some contacts are saying they’re ready for the Independence Day week to look to safe additional hundreds. Class II, III and IV calls for vary from robust to regular. Class I demand stays weak within the Northeast however regular throughout all different areas. Trade individuals report condensed skim demand and availability are similar to latest weeks. Cream availability continues to tighten. Cream multiples for all Lessons are 1.15 – 1.40 within the East, 1.20 – 1.38 within the Midwest and 1.05 – 1.30 within the West.
DRY PRODUCTS: Low/medium warmth nonfat dry milk (NDM) costs had been regular to increased this week. As a result of restricted availability coinciding with mild to regular demand, markets are considered as rangebound. Dry buttermilk costs had been regular to barely decrease nationwide. Present spot buying and selling exercise is quiet, as processors are targeted totally on contractual obligations. Dry complete milk costs had been regular, as spot load availability is and has been considerably tight. Dry whey costs had been combined all through the areas this week. Home demand is regular. As excessive protein focus mix markets are agency, whey solids proceed to move into these processing channels. Whey protein focus 34% costs had been combined, as home demand is famous as regular, whereas worldwide pursuits are quieter. Lactose costs had been unchanged, as preparations for Q3 contracts are wrapping up. Acid and casein costs slid decrease on softening worldwide demand.
INTERNATIONAL DAIRY MARKET NEWS
WEST EUROPE: Milk manufacturing in West Europe has been seasonally declining over the past month. In a lot of Europe, milk manufacturing ranges have been above these of the earlier 12 months. Nonetheless, cool moist climate has held again manufacturing in components of Europe like the UK and Eire. Following the European parliament election held earlier within the month, Europeans are anticipating what the shift to the appropriate might imply for EU agricultural coverage and nationwide elections held later within the 12 months.
EAST EUROPE: Milk manufacturing continues to develop inside East Europe. The EU Council has agreed in precept to the negotiating framework for accession talks with Ukraine and Moldova. Hungary was the final member state to conform to the talks after expressing considerations concerning the therapy of Hungarian minority teams inside Ukraine. The primary conferences are set to begin subsequent week.
AUSTRALIA: Dairy Australia not too long ago launched export knowledge for Australia exhibiting milk export volumes from July 2023 – April 2024 had been down from the identical interval a 12 months earlier. The April 2024 Manufacturing Inputs Monitor from Dairy Australia acknowledged dry circumstances endured all through Could. Dryer soil circumstances in dairy producing areas of the nation have contributed to elevated demand for supplementary feed and better costs for hay and grain.
NEW ZEALAND: Milk manufacturing knowledge from New Zealand for April 2024 was not too long ago launched exhibiting complete April 2024 manufacturing was down on a tonnage foundation in comparison with a 12 months earlier. Throughout April 2024, the full kg of milk solids decreased from the earlier 12 months. Lately launched knowledge from New Zealand for April confirmed the variety of dairy cows despatched to slaughter in the course of the month was up from April 2023.
SOUTH AMERICA: Contacts in some areas of the South American area say climate patterns have develop into nearly contradictory as winter approaches. There are different hurdles confronting regional dairy farmers, in accordance with studies, as costs for feed and extra notably, fertilizer, have moved increased in latest months. Areas in Argentina, Uruguay and Brazil (particularly the state of Rio Grande do Sul) are nonetheless recovering from latest months’ flooding. Merchants within the area say mid-year market exercise has cooled. Some contacts in Argentina and Uruguay relay Brazilian near-term wants are being met, however skim milk and complete milk powder availability will not be bountiful. Brazilian importers relay an upcoming push for dry whey and whey protein blends is predicted. They’re eyeing world markets in addition to availability tendencies from their neighboring buying and selling companions. All that mentioned, present markets are usually regular to quiet as merchants are focusing in on Q3/This autumn contracts.
NATIONAL RETAIL REPORT: Typical dairy adverts elevated, however natural dairy adverts decreased. Cheese was probably the most marketed dairy commodity. Complete standard cheese adverts elevated barely in comparison with the prior week. Typical ice cream was closely represented in dairy adverts. The rise in complete standard ice cream adverts for this week in comparison with final week was marginal. No natural ice cream adverts had been current this week. Yogurt was the third most represented standard dairy commodity.
